NOTE:  The locations of the NWS long range predictions has changed

 

I’ve written before about my love/hate relationship with long range weather forecasting. I can’t really believe it, but I can’t help watching. It goes back to my earliest days, reading the Farmer’s Almanac. It never seemed to be right, but everybody said it was accurate.

I have to say that trying to predict the weather in April and May in the Trans-Bluegrass is a daunting task. I have seen everything from. . . well, I’ve seen it. I distinctly remember the forecast one day in April reading, “Intermittent Hail.” Sure enough, every few hours hail fell from the sky. No rain, no thunderstorms–just a dose of hail every now and again.

With a month left to go before the Opener, I’m starting to look seriously at the forecasts. The National Weather Service puts out two products worth mentioning.

NWS Climate News

and this one

NWS Seasonal Outlooks

These both read differently than the normal maps. They show the predicted deviation from normal temperatures and precipitation. If there is a dark green bullseye over your area, it does not necessarily mean a lot of rain. It means a strong change of above normal precipitation. It could be a just a drop over the average, but by golly you’re going to get it! No color means an even chance (EC) of it being above or below normal.

So what’s in store for the Trans-Bluegrass? According to the latest, The Opener on 14 April is going to be above normal temperatures with slightly above-normal precipitation.  A normal Opener for us is a low in the mid-40’s and a high in the mid-60’s with an ever-present chance of rain all during Opening Week.  That’s a revision from just a few days ago. Previous to this the forecast was for below-normal temps and above normal precipitation.

That brings up a good point about how to look at these long range forecasts.  They are not stone tablets from heaven.  They are just the best guess coming from the best scientific minds the government has hired.  Those guesses change over time. Only by watching these things long term will you get a feel for how accurate they are in your own circumstance.

As the Opener gets closer, I start looking at the 10-day forecasts on WeatherUnderground.com.  I have come to rely on WUnderground.com almost exclusively.  For one thing, it seems to be about the most accurate.  For another it delivers everything consisely, without a whole lot of Climate Change gobbledy-gook, LGBT Awareness  and Left Wing Politics.   When I’m afield, I have WU on my phone both for radar and the hourly forecasts.  If it says Cats-n-Dogs at 11, I know I should start watching the sky at 10 and start heading in at 1030. I’m up on the porch sipping my coffee when the rain hits.

 

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