ENSO-NADA, The Turkey Dead Zone
I do a yearly shamanic weather prediction for another forum– what’s it going to be like on the Turkey Opener? I don’t claim to be a major expert. All I’m doing is going on https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and reading the tea leaves. I do it, more than anything to piss off the guys who tell me they don’t care. Some get angry and say I’m telling them to stay home. No. I’m all for going out, no matter what the weather. It’s just handy to know whether to pack shorts or a parka for turkey camp.
I noticed something this AM that I hadn’t noticed before. While I was doing my annual forecast, I had the log from Turkey Camp open on another screen. This is where I track everyone’s kills- data stretching back to 2002, when we got the farm.
There are holes in the log. It’s not that I didn’t fill in the info. There was no info. There are a few years where nobody filled a tag. I looked at the current predicted conditions for April, 2026 and it’s going to be ENSO-Neutral. Come to find out, all those bum years fell in ENSO-Neutral years.
If you’re not up on ENSO, this is the name for what’s commonly called El-Nino and La Nina. If you don’t know about these, here’s a description:
Wikipedia: The Southern Oscillation
Here’s the thing. I noticed that the holes in my turkey log match up with what’s called ENSO-Neutral conditions. A nickname for it is ENSO-Nada. It’s between La Nina and El Nino. The general effects for the Greater Ohio Valley is warmer, wetter conditions. Every time Turkey Season coincides with ENSO-Nada, the turkeys disappear. I counted just one tag filled in over twenty years of hunting at our camp.
I looked for a good way to show this, and this is the best I could find:
El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities
If you scroll down to the bottom chart:
. . . you’ll see this:
Bear with me. You’re looking for the MAM (March/April/May) and AMJ (April/May/June) columns. If the values in those columns aren’t colored Blue or Red, these are ENSO-Nada conditions. The values are close to 0.00. For us, here in SW Bracken County, that has meant a big goose-egg on tags filled.
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Can you fill us in on the progress of the permanent deer/turkey camp you guys have been constructing? I hope I haven’t missed an update? Thanks.
I haven’t been down since 1/13. However, I know work stopped that weekend and has not progressed since. It’s been too cold. The stone mason toughed it out for a bit and then had to quit, because the mortar was freezing. It’s a disappointment. We were hoping that the roof work would be done,and they could run heaters, but the weather has not cooperated.
As soon as work starts again, I’ll be down and I’ll take pictures and report back. I know the contractor is bored out of his gourd and wants back as soon as possible.